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Cortulua vs Popayan — Primera B 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
PST
22:00
Popayan
Popayan
10/23/2020Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 15Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Cortulua56%
×Draw25%
Popayan19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.58
Popayan
0.81

Cortulua creates 95% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 130 away

creates per match

Cortulua
1.62
Popayan
0.86

allows per match

Cortulua
0.76
Popayan
1.54

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Popayan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
81%
Cortulua or Popayan
75%
Draw or Popayan
44%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
30%
Popayan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
79%
Cortulua 2+ goals
47%
Cortulua 3+ goals
21%
Popayan 1+ goals
56%
Popayan 2+ goals
19%
Popayan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
74%
Popayan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

Popayan away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.54 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 1.62 + Popayan defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Popayan attack 0.86 + Cortulua defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cortulua scores more
56%
level
25%
Popayan scores more
19%

Cortulua at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cortulua host Popayan

October 23, 2020: Cortulua take on Popayan in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cortulua host Popayan at Estadio Doce de Octubre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.