Cortulua 0–1 Leones FC: Result & Stats | Primera B

Cortulua

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leones FC

3/31/2019

Primera B · Apertura - 10Estadio Doce de Octubre (Tuluá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Cortulua52%

×Draw24%

Leones FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchLeones FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.02

Cortulua

1.66

Leones FC

1.02

Cortulua creates 63% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 127 away

1.62

creates per match

1.29

0.76

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Cortulua

1.62

Leones FC

1.29

allows per match

Cortulua

0.76

Leones FC

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Leones FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

77%

Cortulua or Leones FC

76%

Draw or Leones FC

48%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

28%

Leones FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

81%

Cortulua 2+ goals

49%

Cortulua 3+ goals

23%

Leones FC 1+ goals

64%

Leones FC 2+ goals

27%

Leones FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

69%

Leones FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 1.62 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Cortulua defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cortulua scores more

52%

level

24%

Leones FC scores more

23%

Cortulua at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff