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Correcaminos Uat vs Durango — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
Preview
01:00
Durango
Durango
8/29/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 6
50%
Correcaminos Uat
model favours
50%24%26%
1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Correcaminos Uat50%
×Draw24%
Durango26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.65
Durango
1.12

Correcaminos Uat creates 47% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 19 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Durango
0.89

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
Durango
1.89

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Durango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
74%
Correcaminos Uat or Durango
76%
Draw or Durango
50%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
26%
Durango wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
81%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
49%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
23%
Durango 1+ goals
67%
Durango 2+ goals
31%
Durango 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
66%
Durango (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Durango away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Durango defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Durango attack 0.89 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
50%
level
24%
Durango scores more
26%

Correcaminos Uat at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Uat
DLLLL
Durango
LLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Correcaminos Uat face Durango (Liga de Expansión MX)

Liga de Expansión MX returns with Correcaminos Uat hosting Durango. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.