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Corpus Christi vs Texas United — USL League Two 2018

Corpus Christi
Corpus Christi
PST
00:00
Texas United
Texas United
5/10/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 2Dugan Soccer & Track Stadium (Corpus Christi, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Corpus Christi46%
×Draw20%
Texas United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corpus Christi
2.21
Texas United
1.85

Corpus Christi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 24 away

creates per match

Corpus Christi
2.89
Texas United
2.50

allows per match

Corpus Christi
1.20
Texas United
1.54

finishing

Corpus Christi+0.00on par
Texas United+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corpus Christi ↓

Texas United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Corpus Christi or draw
67%
Corpus Christi or Texas United
80%
Draw or Texas United
54%

Winning margin

Corpus Christi wins by 2+
27%
Texas United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Corpus Christi 1+ goals
89%
Corpus Christi 2+ goals
65%
Corpus Christi 3+ goals
38%
Texas United 1+ goals
84%
Texas United 2+ goals
55%
Texas United 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Corpus Christi (draw refunded)
58%
Texas United (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corpus Christi at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Texas United away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corpus Christi attack 2.89 + Texas United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.21

Texas United attack 2.50 + Corpus Christi defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Corpus Christi scores more
46%
level
20%
Texas United scores more
33%

Corpus Christi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Corpus Christi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Corpus Christi vs Texas United — Match Preview

Corpus Christi face Texas United on May 10, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Corpus Christi host Texas United at Dugan Soccer & Track Stadium (Corpus Christi, Texas).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.