Cork City 5–0 Wexford: Result & Stats

Cork City

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Wexford

B. O'Brien Whitmarsh 90+1', 67'

C. Murphy 28', 12'

D. Crowley 21'

5/7/2021

First Division · Round 7Turner's Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Cork City58%

×Draw23%

Wexford20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork CityExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.97

Cork City

1.84

Wexford

0.97

Cork City creates 90% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 118 away

1.97

creates per match

1.19

0.75

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Cork City

1.97

Wexford

1.19

allows per match

Cork City

0.75

Wexford

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Wexford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cork City or draw

80%

Cork City or Wexford

77%

Draw or Wexford

42%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+

33%

Wexford wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals

84%

Cork City 2+ goals

55%

Cork City 3+ goals

28%

Wexford 1+ goals

62%

Wexford 2+ goals

25%

Wexford 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)

75%

Wexford (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 1.97 + Wexford defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.84

Wexford attack 1.19 + Cork City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cork City scores more

58%

level

23%

Wexford scores more

20%

Cork City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

C. Murphy

21'

D. Crowley

25'

28'

C. Murphy

48'

51'

55'

J. Connolly← K. Manahan

61'

B. O'Brien Whitmarsh← J. Walsh

67'

B. O'Brien Whitmarsh

72'

D. McGlade← C. Bargary

72'

J. Wynne← D. Crowley

80'

D. Holland← J. Baxter

83'

J. Larkin← K. Robinson

84'

C. Smith← H. Groome

90+1'

B. O'Brien Whitmarsh

Cork

Wexford

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Crowley

▼

Bargary

▼

Walsh

Manager: C. Healy

61'▲B. O'Brien Whitmarsh←▼J. Walsh

72'▲D. McGlade←▼C. Bargary

72'▲J. Wynne←▼D. Crowley

80'▲D. Holland←▼J. Baxter

Cork City substitutes

WhitmarshMcGladeWynneHollandHarringtonMorrisseyHuntKargbo

Manager: B. O'Sullivan

55'▲J. Connolly←▼K. Manahan

83'▲J. Larkin←▼K. Robinson

84'▲C. Smith←▼H. Groome

Wexford substitutes

ConnollyLarkinSmithDolanDobbinFarrellMcEvoy

First Division: Cork City 5–0 Wexford

Cork City beat Wexford 5-0 in First Division on May 7, 2021.

Goals: C. Murphy (12', 28'), D. Crowley (21'), B. O'Brien Whitmarsh (67', 90+1').

The match was played at Turner's Cross in Cork.

Cork City vs Wexford — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Cork City 5–0 Wexford