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Cork City vs UCD — First Division 2019

Cork City
Cork City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UCD
UCD
3/1/2024First DivisionFirst Division · Round 3Turner's Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Cork City48%
×Draw24%
UCD28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cork City
1.69
UCD
1.23

Cork City creates 37% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 74 away

creates per match

Cork City
1.97
UCD
1.70

allows per match

Cork City
0.75
UCD
1.41

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par
UCD+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

UCD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cork City or draw
72%
Cork City or UCD
76%
Draw or UCD
52%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+
26%
UCD wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals
82%
Cork City 2+ goals
50%
Cork City 3+ goals
24%
UCD 1+ goals
71%
UCD 2+ goals
35%
UCD 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)
63%
UCD (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

UCD away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 1.97 + UCD defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.69

UCD attack 1.70 + Cork City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cork City scores more
48%
level
24%
UCD scores more
28%

Cork City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Cork City 1–0 UCD

Cork City beat UCD 1-0 in First Division on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Turner's Cross in Cork.