Coritiba 1–2 Botafogo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Coritiba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Botafogo

Neilton 27'

Pedro Raul 82' (pen), 75'

12/20/2020

Serie A · Round 26Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Coritiba35%

×Draw27%

Botafogo39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.33

Coritiba

1.24

Botafogo

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 47 away

1.11

creates per match

1.09

1.56

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Coritiba

1.11

Botafogo

1.09

allows per match

Coritiba

1.56

Botafogo

1.36

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Coritiba-0.16scores less

Botafogo+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

61%

Coritiba or Botafogo

73%

Draw or Botafogo

65%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

15%

Botafogo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

71%

Coritiba 2+ goals

35%

Coritiba 3+ goals

13%

Botafogo 1+ goals

74%

Botafogo 2+ goals

38%

Botafogo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

47%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 21 matches

Botafogo away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.11 + Botafogo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Botafogo attack 1.09 + Coritiba defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Coritiba scores more

35%

level

27%

Botafogo scores more

39%

Botafogo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Rafinha

Coritiba · M

8.0

Match Events

27'

Neilton

31'

M. Galdezani

46'

Hugo Moura← Matheus Galdezani

53'

Kanu

56'

A. Lecaros← Warley

56'

Matheus Babi← José Welison

65'

Maílton← Jonathan Lemos

65'

Robson Fernandes← Pablo Thomaz

65'

Cícero← K. Honda

69'

Mattheus← Giovanni Augusto

73'

Yan Sasse← Neilton

75'

Rhuan← S. Kalou

75'

Pedro Raul↳ Cícero

82'

M. Sales

82'

Pedro RaulPenalty

85'

Mailton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaBotafogo

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots18

4Corners11

14Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots18

4On Target3

6Off Target5

0Blocked10

6Inside Box10

4Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

340Total Passes404

273Accurate Passes355

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls18

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2