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Corinthians vs Bahia — Serie A 2026

Corinthians
Corinthians
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Bahia
Bahia
11/25/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 35Neo Química Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Corinthians47%
×Draw27%
Bahia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians
1.40
Bahia
0.98

Corinthians creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

creates per match

Corinthians
1.26
Bahia
0.94

allows per match

Corinthians
1.03
Bahia
1.53

finishing

Corinthians-0.08on par
Bahia+0.23scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw
74%
Corinthians or Bahia
73%
Draw or Bahia
53%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+
22%
Bahia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals
75%
Corinthians 2+ goals
41%
Corinthians 3+ goals
17%
Bahia 1+ goals
62%
Bahia 2+ goals
26%
Bahia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)
64%
Bahia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 17 matches

Bahia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.26 + Bahia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bahia attack 0.94 + Corinthians defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Corinthians scores more
47%
level
27%
Bahia scores more
26%

Corinthians at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Corinthians 1–5 Bahia

Bahia beat Corinthians 5-1 in Serie A on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Neo Química Arena in São Paulo, São Paulo.