Corinthians 1–1 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats

Corinthians

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico-MG

11/9/2023

Serie A · Round 33Neo Química Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Corinthians43%

×Draw28%

Atletico-MG29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CorinthiansExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.00

Corinthians

1.29

Atletico-MG

1.00

Corinthians creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

1.26

creates per match

0.98

1.03

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Corinthians

1.26

Atletico-MG

0.98

allows per match

Corinthians

1.03

Atletico-MG

1.31

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Corinthians-0.08on par

Atletico-MG-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw

71%

Corinthians or Atletico-MG

72%

Draw or Atletico-MG

57%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+

20%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals

72%

Corinthians 2+ goals

37%

Corinthians 3+ goals

14%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

63%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

26%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)

60%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 17 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.26 + Atletico-MG defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atletico-MG attack 0.98 + Corinthians defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Corinthians scores more

43%

level

28%

Atletico-MG scores more

29%

Corinthians at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff