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Corinthians U20 vs Itapirense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
Preview
22:00
Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
7/25/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 8
65%
Corinthians U20
model favours
65%19%16%

When Corinthians U20 score first, they win 85% of the time

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Corinthians U2065%
×Draw19%
Itapirense U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U20
2.29
Itapirense U20
1.04

Corinthians U20 creates 120% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

creates per match

Corinthians U20
2.12
Itapirense U20
1.12

allows per match

Corinthians U20
0.96
Itapirense U20
2.47

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par
Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw
84%
Corinthians U20 or Itapirense U20
81%
Draw or Itapirense U20
35%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
42%
Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals
90%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
66%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
40%
Itapirense U20 1+ goals
65%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
28%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.29

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more
65%
level
19%
Itapirense U20 scores more
16%

Corinthians U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Corinthians U20 sit 4, Itapirense U20 34 in the table
  • Corinthians U20 and Itapirense U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WLWLW
U20
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Corinthians U20 face Itapirense U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Corinthians U20 hosting Itapirense U20. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.