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Corinthians U20 vs América-SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
Preview
18:00
América-SP U20
América-SP U20
9/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 15
75%
Corinthians U20
model favours
75%15%10%

When Corinthians U20 score first, they win 85% of the time

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Corinthians U2075%
×Draw15%
América-SP U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U20
2.56
América-SP U20
0.81

Corinthians U20 creates 216% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

creates per match

Corinthians U20
2.12
América-SP U20
0.67

allows per match

Corinthians U20
0.96
América-SP U20
3.00

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par
América-SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

América-SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw
90%
Corinthians U20 or América-SP U20
85%
Draw or América-SP U20
25%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
53%
América-SP U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals
92%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
72%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
46%
América-SP U20 1+ goals
56%
América-SP U20 2+ goals
19%
América-SP U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
88%
América-SP U20 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

América-SP U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + América-SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

América-SP U20 attack 0.67 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more
75%
level
15%
América-SP U20 scores more
10%

Corinthians U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Corinthians U20 sit 4, América-SP U20 35 in the table
  • Corinthians U20 and América-SP U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WLWLW
U20
LWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Corinthians U20 vs América-SP U20 — Match Preview

Corinthians U20 face América-SP U20 on September 12, 2026 in this Paulista - U20 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.