Corinthians U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17

Corinthians U17

Preview

20:00

Atlético Mineiro U17

9/15/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 17

57%

Corinthians U17

model favours

57%20%24%

Corinthians U17 have scored in 19 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

73%

over 2.5 goals

69%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Corinthians U1757%

×Draw20%

Atlético Mineiro U1724%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corinthians U17Expected goals in this matchAtlético Mineiro U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.46

Corinthians U17

2.33

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.46

Corinthians U17 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

2.70

creates per match

1.86

1.05

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Corinthians U17

2.70

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.86

allows per match

Corinthians U17

1.05

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians U17+0.00on par

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U17 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Corinthians U17 or draw

76%

Corinthians U17 or Atlético Mineiro U17

80%

Draw or Atlético Mineiro U17

43%

Winning margin

Corinthians U17 wins by 2+

35%

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Corinthians U17 1+ goals

90%

Corinthians U17 2+ goals

67%

Corinthians U17 3+ goals

41%

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)

71%

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U17 at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Atlético Mineiro U17 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U17 attack 2.70 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.33

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 1.86 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Corinthians U17 scores more

57%

level

20%

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more

24%

Corinthians U17 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Corinthians U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Atlético Mineiro U17 score first in only 6% of matches
Corinthians U17 score first in only 11% of matches
Both teams score in 100% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches
Corinthians U17 have won 3 in a row
Both sides lean high-scoring (74% and 75% over 2.5)
75% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U17

WWWLW

U17

DLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff