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Coria CF vs Cartaya — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Coria CF
Coria CF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cartaya
Cartaya
12/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 14Estadio Guadalquivir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Coria CF45%
×Draw27%
Cartaya28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coria CF
1.36
Cartaya
1.00

Coria CF creates 36% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 65 away

creates per match

Coria CF
1.07
Cartaya
0.82

allows per match

Coria CF
1.18
Cartaya
1.65

finishing

Coria CF+0.00on par
Cartaya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coria CF ↓

Cartaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Coria CF or draw
72%
Coria CF or Cartaya
73%
Draw or Cartaya
55%

Winning margin

Coria CF wins by 2+
21%
Cartaya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Coria CF 1+ goals
74%
Coria CF 2+ goals
39%
Coria CF 3+ goals
16%
Cartaya 1+ goals
63%
Cartaya 2+ goals
26%
Cartaya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coria CF (draw refunded)
62%
Cartaya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coria CF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 94 matches

Cartaya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coria CF attack 1.07 + Cartaya defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cartaya attack 0.82 + Coria CF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Coria CF scores more
45%
level
27%
Cartaya scores more
28%

Coria CF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Coria CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coria CF vs Cartaya

Coria CF and Cartaya drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Guadalquivir in Coria del Río.