Coria CF 2–2 Atlético Espeleño: Result & Stats

Coria CF

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Espeleño

9/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3Estadio Guadalquivir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Coria CF47%

×Draw26%

Atlético Espeleño27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coria CFExpected goals in this matchAtlético Espeleño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.05

Coria CF

1.48

Atlético Espeleño

1.05

Coria CF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 49 away

1.07

creates per match

0.92

1.18

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Coria CF

1.07

Atlético Espeleño

0.92

allows per match

Coria CF

1.18

Atlético Espeleño

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coria CF+0.00on par

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coria CF ↓

Atlético Espeleño →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Coria CF or draw

73%

Coria CF or Atlético Espeleño

74%

Draw or Atlético Espeleño

53%

Winning margin

Coria CF wins by 2+

23%

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Coria CF 1+ goals

77%

Coria CF 2+ goals

43%

Coria CF 3+ goals

19%

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Coria CF (draw refunded)

64%

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Coria CF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 94 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Coria CF attack 1.07 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Coria CF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coria CF scores more

47%

level

26%

Atlético Espeleño scores more

27%

Coria CF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Coria CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Coria CF 2–2 Atlético Espeleño

Coria CF and Atlético Espeleño drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Guadalquivir in Coria del Río.

Coria CF vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Coria CF 2–2 Atlético Espeleño