Córdoba II 3–0 Bollullos: Result & Stats

Córdoba II

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bollullos

12/4/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Córdoba II49%

×Draw26%

Bollullos25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Córdoba IIExpected goals in this matchBollullos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.97

Córdoba II

1.48

Bollullos

0.97

Córdoba II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 67 away

1.60

creates per match

0.88

1.05

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Córdoba II

1.60

Bollullos

0.88

allows per match

Córdoba II

1.05

Bollullos

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par

Bollullos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Bollullos →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw

75%

Córdoba II or Bollullos

74%

Draw or Bollullos

51%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+

25%

Bollullos wins by 2+

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals

77%

Córdoba II 2+ goals

43%

Córdoba II 3+ goals

19%

Bollullos 1+ goals

62%

Bollullos 2+ goals

25%

Bollullos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)

66%

Bollullos (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Bollullos away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Bollullos defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bollullos attack 0.88 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Córdoba II scores more

49%

level

26%

Bollullos scores more

25%

Córdoba II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff