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Coquimbo Unido vs Platense — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
Preview
20:00
Platense
Platense
8/18/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16
Big match
45%
Coquimbo Unido
model favours
45%26%30%

Coquimbo Unido score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coquimbo Unido45%
×Draw26%
Platense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.50
Platense
1.17

Coquimbo Unido creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
2.00
Platense
1.67

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
0.67
Platense
1.00

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
70%
Coquimbo Unido or Platense
74%
Draw or Platense
55%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
22%
Platense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
78%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
44%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
19%
Platense 1+ goals
69%
Platense 2+ goals
33%
Platense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
60%
Platense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Platense away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 2.00 + Platense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Platense attack 1.67 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
45%
level
26%
Platense scores more
30%

Coquimbo Unido at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Platense win just 14% of their away games
  • 68% of Platense’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 46% of Coquimbo Unido’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Coquimbo Unido 1 vs Platense 2
  • Coquimbo Unido and Platense have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Unido
LWDDW
Platense
WLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coquimbo Unido vs Platense — Match Preview

Coquimbo Unido face Platense on August 18, 2026 in this CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.