Coquimbo Unido 1–2 Deportes Iquique: Result & Stats

Coquimbo Unido

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportes Iquique

J. Bauman 77'

C. González 90+1'

A. Nadruz 15'

8/10/2024

Primera División · Round 19Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Coquimbo Unido47%

×Draw25%

Deportes Iquique27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchDeportes Iquique

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.12

Coquimbo Unido

1.56

Deportes Iquique

1.12

Coquimbo Unido creates 39% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 68 away

1.37

creates per match

1.18

1.06

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.37

Deportes Iquique

1.18

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.06

Deportes Iquique

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Deportes Iquique →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

73%

Coquimbo Unido or Deportes Iquique

75%

Draw or Deportes Iquique

53%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

24%

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

79%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

46%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

21%

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

67%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

31%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

63%

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.06 · 89 matches

Deportes Iquique away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.75 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.37 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Deportes Iquique attack 1.18 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

47%

level

25%

Deportes Iquique scores more

27%

Coquimbo Unido at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

D. Escobar

Coquimbo Unido · D

7.3

Match Events

15'

A. Nadruz↳ L. Casanova

24'

M. Sanhueza← L. Casanova

51'

Álvaro Ramos

57'

A. Azócar← C. Barrera

60'

Dilan Rojas

64'

A. Chávez← J. Vázquez

69'

69'

69'

70'

77'

J. Cornejo← S. Galani

77'

77'

79'

90+4'

90+5'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoquimboDeportes

Overview

52%Possession48%

17Total Shots10

1.56Expected Goals (xG)1.53

13Corners1

7Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots10

3On Target2

6Off Target6

8Blocked2

11Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

379Total Passes377

251Accurate Passes239

66%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2