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Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo — Primera División 2018

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
3/17/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 5Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Coquimbo Unido38%
×Draw27%
Colo Colo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.28
Colo Colo
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 126 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.43
Colo Colo
1.35

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.04
Colo Colo
1.14

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
65%
Coquimbo Unido or Colo Colo
73%
Draw or Colo Colo
62%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
17%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
72%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
37%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
14%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
70%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
34%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
53%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.43 + Colo Colo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Colo Colo attack 1.35 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
38%
level
27%
Colo Colo scores more
35%

Coquimbo Unido at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Coquimbo Unido 0–0 Colo Colo

Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo drew 0-0 in Primera División on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.