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Cooks Hill United vs Valentine — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Cooks Hill United
Cooks Hill United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Valentine
Valentine
3/23/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 5Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Cooks Hill United48%
×Draw22%
Valentine30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cooks Hill United
1.94
Valentine
1.48

Cooks Hill United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 77 away

creates per match

Cooks Hill United
1.83
Valentine
1.26

allows per match

Cooks Hill United
1.69
Valentine
2.05

finishing

Cooks Hill United+0.00on par
Valentine+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cooks Hill United ↓

Valentine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Cooks Hill United or draw
70%
Cooks Hill United or Valentine
78%
Draw or Valentine
52%

Winning margin

Cooks Hill United wins by 2+
27%
Valentine wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cooks Hill United 1+ goals
86%
Cooks Hill United 2+ goals
58%
Cooks Hill United 3+ goals
30%
Valentine 1+ goals
77%
Valentine 2+ goals
43%
Valentine 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cooks Hill United (draw refunded)
62%
Valentine (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cooks Hill United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

Valentine away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.05 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cooks Hill United attack 1.83 + Valentine defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.94

Valentine attack 1.26 + Cooks Hill United defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cooks Hill United scores more
48%
level
22%
Valentine scores more
30%

Cooks Hill United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cooks Hill United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cooks Hill United vs Valentine

Cooks Hill United and Valentine drew 1-1 in Northern NSW NPL on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre in Newcastle.