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Conquense vs Toledo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Conquense
Conquense
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Toledo
Toledo
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 20Estadio Municipal La Fuensanta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Conquense41%
×Draw30%
Toledo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conquense
1.13
Toledo
0.89

Conquense creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 95 away

creates per match

Conquense
1.41
Toledo
1.01

allows per match

Conquense
0.76
Toledo
0.84

finishing

Conquense+0.00on par
Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conquense ↓

Toledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Conquense or draw
71%
Conquense or Toledo
70%
Draw or Toledo
59%

Winning margin

Conquense wins by 2+
17%
Toledo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Conquense 1+ goals
68%
Conquense 2+ goals
31%
Conquense 3+ goals
11%
Toledo 1+ goals
59%
Toledo 2+ goals
22%
Toledo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Conquense (draw refunded)
59%
Toledo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conquense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 78 matches

Toledo away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.84 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conquense attack 1.41 + Toledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Toledo attack 1.01 + Conquense defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Conquense scores more
41%
level
30%
Toledo scores more
29%

Conquense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Conquense 3–2 Toledo

Conquense beat Toledo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Fuensanta in Cuenca.