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Conquense vs Illescas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Conquense
Conquense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Illescas
Illescas
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 6Estadio Municipal La Fuensanta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Conquense50%
×Draw27%
Illescas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conquense
1.44
Illescas
0.90

Conquense creates 60% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 78 away

creates per match

Conquense
1.41
Illescas
1.03

allows per match

Conquense
0.76
Illescas
1.47

finishing

Conquense+0.00on par
Illescas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conquense ↓

Illescas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Conquense or draw
76%
Conquense or Illescas
73%
Draw or Illescas
50%

Winning margin

Conquense wins by 2+
25%
Illescas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Conquense 1+ goals
76%
Conquense 2+ goals
42%
Conquense 3+ goals
18%
Illescas 1+ goals
59%
Illescas 2+ goals
23%
Illescas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Conquense (draw refunded)
68%
Illescas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conquense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 78 matches

Illescas away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.47 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conquense attack 1.41 + Illescas defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Illescas attack 1.03 + Conquense defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Conquense scores more
50%
level
27%
Illescas scores more
24%

Conquense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Conquense vs Illescas

Conquense and Illescas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Fuensanta in Cuenca.