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Connecticut FC vs Inter Miami II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Connecticut FC
Connecticut FC
Preview
18:00
Inter Miami II
Inter Miami II
9/20/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group Stage
56%
Connecticut FC
model favours
56%20%24%

Inter Miami II score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Connecticut FC56%
×Draw20%
Inter Miami II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Connecticut FC
2.29
Inter Miami II
1.44

Connecticut FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 50 away

creates per match

Connecticut FC
1.86
Inter Miami II
0.88

allows per match

Connecticut FC
2.00
Inter Miami II
2.72

finishing

Connecticut FC+0.00on par
Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Connecticut FC ↓

Inter Miami II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Connecticut FC or draw
76%
Connecticut FC or Inter Miami II
80%
Draw or Inter Miami II
44%

Winning margin

Connecticut FC wins by 2+
35%
Inter Miami II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Connecticut FC 1+ goals
90%
Connecticut FC 2+ goals
66%
Connecticut FC 3+ goals
40%
Inter Miami II 1+ goals
76%
Inter Miami II 2+ goals
42%
Inter Miami II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Connecticut FC (draw refunded)
70%
Inter Miami II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Connecticut FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.72 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Connecticut FC attack 1.86 + Inter Miami II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.29

Inter Miami II attack 0.88 + Connecticut FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Connecticut FC scores more
56%
level
20%
Inter Miami II scores more
24%

Connecticut FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Connecticut FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 91% of Connecticut FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (91% and 61% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 82% of Connecticut FC’s matches
  • Connecticut FC have scored in 8 games running
  • Connecticut FC and Inter Miami II have never met before
  • 36% of Connecticut FC’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
WWLWW
II
WLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Connecticut FC host Inter Miami II

September 20, 2026: Connecticut FC take on Inter Miami II in MLS Next Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.