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Conil vs Xerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Xerez
Xerez
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 25Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Conil42%
×Draw28%
Xerez30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.26
Xerez
1.02

Conil creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 75 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
Xerez
1.20

allows per match

Conil
0.85
Xerez
1.17

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
Xerez+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Xerez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Conil or draw
70%
Conil or Xerez
72%
Draw or Xerez
58%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
19%
Xerez wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
72%
Conil 2+ goals
36%
Conil 3+ goals
13%
Xerez 1+ goals
64%
Xerez 2+ goals
27%
Xerez 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
58%
Xerez (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Xerez away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Xerez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Xerez attack 1.20 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Conil scores more
42%
level
28%
Xerez scores more
30%

Conil at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Conil vs Xerez

Conil beat Xerez 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.