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Conil vs Utrera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Utrera
Utrera
11/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Conil41%
×Draw28%
Utrera31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.29
Utrera
1.08

Conil creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 96 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
Utrera
1.32

allows per match

Conil
0.85
Utrera
1.23

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
Utrera+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Utrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Conil or draw
69%
Conil or Utrera
72%
Draw or Utrera
59%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
19%
Utrera wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
72%
Conil 2+ goals
37%
Conil 3+ goals
14%
Utrera 1+ goals
66%
Utrera 2+ goals
29%
Utrera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
57%
Utrera (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Utrera away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Utrera defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Utrera attack 1.32 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Conil scores more
41%
level
28%
Utrera scores more
31%

Conil at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Conil 2–4 Utrera

Utrera beat Conil 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.