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Conil vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ceuta II
Ceuta II
3/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Conil50%
×Draw28%
Ceuta II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.38
Ceuta II
0.83

Conil creates 66% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 82 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
Ceuta II
0.82

allows per match

Conil
0.85
Ceuta II
1.40

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Ceuta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Conil or draw
77%
Conil or Ceuta II
72%
Draw or Ceuta II
50%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
24%
Ceuta II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
75%
Conil 2+ goals
40%
Conil 3+ goals
16%
Ceuta II 1+ goals
56%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
20%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
69%
Ceuta II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Conil scores more
50%
level
28%
Ceuta II scores more
23%

Conil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Conil 0–2 Ceuta II

Ceuta II beat Conil 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.