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Condal vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Condal
Condal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Martín
San Martín
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio Alejandro Ortea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Condal39%
×Draw28%
San Martín32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Condal
1.22
San Martín
1.08

Condal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

creates per match

Condal
0.88
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Condal
1.05
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Condal+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Condal ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Condal or draw
68%
Condal or San Martín
72%
Draw or San Martín
61%

Winning margin

Condal wins by 2+
17%
San Martín wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Condal 1+ goals
70%
Condal 2+ goals
34%
Condal 3+ goals
12%
San Martín 1+ goals
66%
San Martín 2+ goals
29%
San Martín 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Condal (draw refunded)
55%
San Martín (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Condal at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Condal attack 0.88 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

San Martín attack 1.12 + Condal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Condal scores more
39%
level
28%
San Martín scores more
32%

Condal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Condal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Condal 1–1 San Martín

Condal and San Martín drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Ortea in Noreña.