Concordia Elbląg 2–1 Pelikan Łowicz: Result & Stats

Concordia Elbląg

FT

2 – 1

Pelikan Łowicz

3/14/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg39%

×Draw25%

Pelikan Łowicz35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concordia ElblągExpected goals in this matchPelikan Łowicz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.34

Concordia Elbląg

1.43

Pelikan Łowicz

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

1.29

creates per match

1.23

1.45

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.29

Pelikan Łowicz

1.23

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.45

Pelikan Łowicz

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw

65%

Concordia Elbląg or Pelikan Łowicz

75%

Draw or Pelikan Łowicz

61%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

19%

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

76%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

42%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

17%

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals

74%

Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals

39%

Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

53%

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more

39%

level

25%

Pelikan Łowicz scores more

35%

Concordia Elbląg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Concordia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff