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Comunicaciones vs Xinabajul — Liga Nacional 2019

Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Xinabajul
Xinabajul
7/30/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 1Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Comunicaciones59%
×Draw23%
Xinabajul18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comunicaciones
1.79
Xinabajul
0.88

Comunicaciones creates 103% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 59 away

creates per match

Comunicaciones
1.70
Xinabajul
0.90

allows per match

Comunicaciones
0.85
Xinabajul
1.88

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par
Xinabajul+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Xinabajul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw
82%
Comunicaciones or Xinabajul
77%
Draw or Xinabajul
41%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+
34%
Xinabajul wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals
83%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
53%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
26%
Xinabajul 1+ goals
59%
Xinabajul 2+ goals
22%
Xinabajul 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
76%
Xinabajul (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 156 matches

Xinabajul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.70 + Xinabajul defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Xinabajul attack 0.90 + Comunicaciones defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Comunicaciones scores more
59%
level
23%
Xinabajul scores more
18%

Comunicaciones at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Comunicaciones 1–1 Xinabajul

Comunicaciones and Xinabajul drew 1-1 in Liga Nacional on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores in Ciudad de Guatemala.