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Comunicaciones vs Guastatoya — Liga Nacional 2019

Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Guastatoya
Guastatoya
11/4/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 15Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Comunicaciones54%
×Draw26%
Guastatoya20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comunicaciones
1.50
Guastatoya
0.79

Comunicaciones creates 90% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 152 away

creates per match

Comunicaciones
1.70
Guastatoya
0.73

allows per match

Comunicaciones
0.85
Guastatoya
1.30

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par
Guastatoya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Guastatoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw
80%
Comunicaciones or Guastatoya
74%
Draw or Guastatoya
46%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+
28%
Guastatoya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals
78%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
44%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
19%
Guastatoya 1+ goals
55%
Guastatoya 2+ goals
19%
Guastatoya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
73%
Guastatoya (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 156 matches

Guastatoya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.70 + Guastatoya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Guastatoya attack 0.73 + Comunicaciones defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Comunicaciones scores more
54%
level
26%
Guastatoya scores more
20%

Comunicaciones at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comunicaciones vs Guastatoya

Comunicaciones beat Guastatoya 2-1 in Liga Nacional on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores in Ciudad de Guatemala.