Comunicaciones 2–1 Deportivo Sanarate

Comunicaciones

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Sanarate

9/29/2019

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 10Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Comunicaciones58%

×Draw23%

Deportivo Sanarate20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComunicacionesExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Sanarate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.97

Comunicaciones

1.85

Deportivo Sanarate

0.97

Comunicaciones creates 91% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 35 away

1.70

creates per match

1.09

0.85

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Comunicaciones

1.70

Deportivo Sanarate

1.09

allows per match

Comunicaciones

0.85

Deportivo Sanarate

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Deportivo Sanarate+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Deportivo Sanarate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw

80%

Comunicaciones or Deportivo Sanarate

77%

Draw or Deportivo Sanarate

42%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

33%

Deportivo Sanarate wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

84%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

55%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

28%

Deportivo Sanarate 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Sanarate 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Sanarate 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

75%

Deportivo Sanarate (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 156 matches

Deportivo Sanarate away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.70 + Deportivo Sanarate defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Deportivo Sanarate attack 1.09 + Comunicaciones defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Comunicaciones scores more

58%

level

23%

Deportivo Sanarate scores more

20%

Comunicaciones at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff