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Petro de Luanda vs Interclube — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
1 – 0
Interclube
Interclube
10/24/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 24Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Petro de Luanda57%
×Draw26%
Interclube16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.49
Interclube
0.66

Petro de Luanda creates 126% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 106 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.01
Interclube
0.89

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.43
Interclube
0.97

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Interclube+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Interclube →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
84%
Petro de Luanda or Interclube
74%
Draw or Interclube
43%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
30%
Interclube wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
77%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
44%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
19%
Interclube 1+ goals
48%
Interclube 2+ goals
14%
Interclube 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
78%
Interclube (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.43 · 110 matches

Interclube away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.97 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + Interclube defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.49

Interclube attack 0.89 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
57%
level
26%
Interclube scores more
16%

Petro de Luanda at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Petro de Luanda 1–0 Interclube

Petro de Luanda beat Interclube 1-0 in Girabola on October 24, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro.