Desportivo Huíla 2–3 Bravos do Maquis FC

Desportivo Huíla

FT

2 – 3

Bravos do Maquis FC

8/18/2013

Girabola · Round 21Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Desportivo Huíla51%

×Draw29%

Bravos do Maquis FC20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Desportivo HuílaExpected goals in this matchBravos do Maquis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.71

Desportivo Huíla

1.30

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.71

Desportivo Huíla creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

1.32

creates per match

0.79

0.63

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla

1.32

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.79

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla

0.63

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw

80%

Desportivo Huíla or Bravos do Maquis FC

71%

Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC

49%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

24%

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

73%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

37%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

14%

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

51%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

16%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

71%

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.63 · 19 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.79 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more

51%

level

29%

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

20%

Desportivo Huíla at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff