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como vs Pisa — Serie B 2018

como
como
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pisa
Pisa
F. Scaglia 5' (OG)
12/5/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 16Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

como43%
×Draw27%
Pisa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

como
1.38
Pisa
1.13

como creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 116 away

creates per match

como
1.40
Pisa
1.21

allows per match

como
1.05
Pisa
1.36

finishing

como+0.00on par
Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

como ↓

Pisa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

como or draw
69%
como or Pisa
73%
Draw or Pisa
57%

Winning margin

como wins by 2+
20%
Pisa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

como 1+ goals
75%
como 2+ goals
40%
como 3+ goals
16%
Pisa 1+ goals
68%
Pisa 2+ goals
31%
Pisa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

como (draw refunded)
58%
Pisa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

como at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

como attack 1.40 + Pisa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pisa attack 1.21 + como defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

como scores more
43%
level
27%
Pisa scores more
31%

como at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
NícolasPisaPisa · G
8.3

Match Events

5'
F. ScagliaOwn goal
57'
G. Masucci← L. Lucca
57'
G. Sibilli← Y. Cohen
60'
E. Gliozzi← L. Vignali
60'
A. Gabrielloni← A. La Gumina
62'
Tommaso Arrigoni
70'
M. Marin← I. Touré
75'
Pietro Beruatto
82'
E. Bovolon← D. Bertoncini
82'
E. Kabashi← T. Arrigoni
82'
M. Gatto← V. Parigini
83'
D. Di Quinzio← R. Gucher
90+4'
Matteo Solini
90+1'
Filippo Scaglia
90+5'
Gaetano Masucci

Possession

56%como

Shots

21como

Pass accuracy

51%como

Statistics

comoPisa
Overview
56%Possession44%
21Total Shots13
3Corners7
11Fouls24
Shots
21Total Shots13
6On Target2
9Off Target8
6Blocked3
12Inside Box9
9Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
448Total Passes347
350Accurate Passes256
78%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls24
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Serie B: como 0–1 Pisa

Pisa beat como 1-0 in Serie B on December 5, 2021.

Goals: F. Scaglia (5' o.g.).

como controlled possession (56%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como.