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Comillas vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Comillas
Comillas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Varea
Varea
9/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 3Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Comillas23%
×Draw24%
Varea52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comillas
1.03
Varea
1.67

Varea creates 62% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 108 away

creates per match

Comillas
1.09
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Comillas
1.53
Varea
0.97

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Comillas or draw
48%
Comillas or Varea
76%
Draw or Varea
77%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+
9%
Varea wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals
64%
Comillas 2+ goals
28%
Comillas 3+ goals
9%
Varea 1+ goals
81%
Varea 2+ goals
50%
Varea 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)
31%
Varea (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.03

Varea attack 1.81 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Comillas scores more
23%
level
24%
Varea scores more
52%

Varea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Comillas 1–2 Varea

Varea beat Comillas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.