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Comillas vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Comillas
Comillas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
10/22/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 7Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Comillas40%
×Draw26%
Haro Deportivo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comillas
1.35
Haro Deportivo
1.23

Comillas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 81 away

creates per match

Comillas
1.09
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

Comillas
1.53
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Comillas or draw
66%
Comillas or Haro Deportivo
74%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
60%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+
18%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals
74%
Comillas 2+ goals
39%
Comillas 3+ goals
15%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
71%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
35%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)
54%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Comillas scores more
40%
level
26%
Haro Deportivo scores more
34%

Comillas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Comillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Comillas 2–1 Haro Deportivo

Comillas beat Haro Deportivo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.