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Comillas vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Comillas
Comillas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 14Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Comillas35%
×Draw25%
Casalarreina40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comillas
1.33
Casalarreina
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 91 away

creates per match

Comillas
1.09
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Comillas
1.53
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Comillas or draw
60%
Comillas or Casalarreina
75%
Draw or Casalarreina
65%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+
15%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals
74%
Comillas 2+ goals
38%
Comillas 3+ goals
15%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
76%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
42%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)
47%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Comillas scores more
35%
level
25%
Casalarreina scores more
40%

Casalarreina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Comillas 0–2 Casalarreina

Casalarreina beat Comillas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.