Comillas 1–2 Berceo: Result & Stats

Comillas

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Berceo

Jaime Garijo 64' (pen)

Javier Arza 90+3'

José Gaspar 39' (pen)

10/8/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Comillas36%

×Draw26%

Berceo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComillasExpected goals in this matchBerceo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.39

Comillas

1.34

Berceo

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 111 away

1.09

creates per match

1.25

1.53

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Comillas

1.09

Berceo

1.25

allows per match

Comillas

1.53

Berceo

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par

Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

Berceo →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Comillas or draw

62%

Comillas or Berceo

74%

Draw or Berceo

64%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+

16%

Berceo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals

74%

Comillas 2+ goals

39%

Comillas 3+ goals

15%

Berceo 1+ goals

75%

Berceo 2+ goals

40%

Berceo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)

48%

Berceo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.34

Berceo attack 1.25 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Comillas scores more

36%

level

26%

Berceo scores more

38%

Berceo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

José GasparPenalty

57'

Robert Yotnda← Xabier Marcos

60'

Ángel del Río← Alejandro Rojo

60'

Raúl Rodríguez← Cristian Padilla

60'

Gonzalo Aguilló← Juan Salvatierra

64'

Jaime GarijoPenalty

65'

Marcos Moreno← Daniel Viguera

65'

Luis Gutiérrez← Rubén Peña

80'

Jorge Uyarra← Jaime Garijo

80'

Eduardo Ocón← Álvaro Marcos

80'

Álvaro Ruiz-Olalde← Chus Fernández

90+3'

Javier Arza

Comillas

Berceo

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Hector Urquia

60'▲Ángel del Río←▼Alejandro Rojo

60'▲Raúl Rodríguez←▼Cristian Padilla

60'▲Gonzalo Aguilló←▼Juan Salvatierra

80'▲Jorge Uyarra←▼Jaime Garijo

80'▲Eduardo Ocón←▼Álvaro Marcos

Comillas substitutes

RíoRodríguezAguillóUyarraOcón

Manager: Borja Lerma

57'▲Robert Yotnda←▼Xabier Marcos

65'▲Marcos Moreno←▼Daniel Viguera

65'▲Luis Gutiérrez←▼Rubén Peña

80'▲Álvaro Ruiz-Olalde←▼Chus Fernández

Berceo substitutes

YotndaMorenoGutiérrezRuiz-Olalde