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Comillas vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Comillas
Comillas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Berceo
Berceo
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 16Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Comillas36%
×Draw26%
Berceo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comillas
1.34
Berceo
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 111 away

creates per match

Comillas
1.09
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

Comillas
1.53
Berceo
1.59

finishing

Comillas+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comillas ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Comillas or draw
62%
Comillas or Berceo
74%
Draw or Berceo
64%

Winning margin

Comillas wins by 2+
16%
Berceo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Comillas 1+ goals
74%
Comillas 2+ goals
39%
Comillas 3+ goals
15%
Berceo 1+ goals
75%
Berceo 2+ goals
40%
Berceo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Comillas (draw refunded)
48%
Berceo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comillas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comillas attack 1.09 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.34

Berceo attack 1.25 + Comillas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Comillas scores more
36%
level
26%
Berceo scores more
38%

Berceo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comillas vs Berceo

Comillas beat Berceo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.