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Comerciantes Unidos vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
7/28/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos52%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Coopsol25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
1.80
Deportivo Coopsol
1.19

Comerciantes Unidos creates 51% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 91 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.98
Deportivo Coopsol
1.18

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.21
Deportivo Coopsol
1.63

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par
Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
75%
Comerciantes Unidos or Deportivo Coopsol
77%
Draw or Deportivo Coopsol
48%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
83%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
54%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
27%
Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 52 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.98 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.80

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
52%
level
23%
Deportivo Coopsol scores more
25%

Comerciantes Unidos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Deportivo Coopsol

Deportivo Coopsol beat Comerciantes Unidos 4-0 in Segunda División on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.