Colwyn Bay vs Barry Town — League #110 2026
Barry Town have won 5 in a row
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Colwyn Bay44%
Barry Town31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Colwyn Bay creates 22% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 41 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Colwyn Bay ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Colwyn Bay at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches
Barry Town away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.95 · 41 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Colwyn Bay attack 1.25 + Barry Town defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.60
Barry Town attack 1.12 + Colwyn Bay defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Colwyn Bay at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Colwyn Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Barry Town score first in only 25% of matches
- Top-of-the-table clash — Colwyn Bay 3 vs Barry Town 1
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Colwyn Bay host Barry Town on Friday, 18 September 2026 at 18:45. The match is part of the League #110 2026/2027 season.
Colwyn Bay vs Barry Town — Match Preview
Colwyn Bay face Barry Town on September 18, 2026 in this League #110 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Colwyn Bay host Barry Town at Llanelian Road.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.