Columbus Crew 2–0 Toronto FC: Result & Stats

Columbus Crew

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Toronto FC

J. Russell-Rowe 89'

D. Rossi 21'

8/26/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 36Lower.com Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Columbus Crew49%

×Draw25%

Toronto FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus CrewExpected goals in this matchToronto FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.06

Columbus Crew

1.57

Toronto FC

1.06

Columbus Crew creates 48% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 33 away

1.69

creates per match

1.06

1.07

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Columbus Crew

1.69

Toronto FC

1.06

allows per match

Columbus Crew

1.07

Toronto FC

1.45

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.23scores more

Toronto FC-0.06on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

Toronto FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw

74%

Columbus Crew or Toronto FC

75%

Draw or Toronto FC

51%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

25%

Toronto FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

79%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

46%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

21%

Toronto FC 1+ goals

65%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

29%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

66%

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.07 · 48 matches

Toronto FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.69 + Toronto FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Toronto FC attack 1.06 + Columbus Crew defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Columbus Crew scores more

49%

level

25%

Toronto FC scores more

26%

Columbus Crew at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Y. Yeboah

Columbus Crew · M

8.2

Match Events

21'

24'

44'

46'

57'

64'

Víctor Vázquez← Alonso Coello

64'

C. Mailula← L. Insigne

70'

J. Russell-Rowe← C. Ramirez

70'

A. Mățan← D. Rossi

81'

K. Thompson← B. Servania

85'

M. Arfsten← Y. Yeboah

85'

M. Farsi← J. Gressel

86'

S. Zawadzki← A. Morris

89'

K. Molino← C. Hernández

89'

J. Russell-Rowe↳ P. Schulte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColumbusToronto

Overview

60%Possession40%

31Total Shots9

2.85Expected Goals (xG)1.23

10Corners3

9Fouls3

Shots

31Total Shots9

8On Target3

13Off Target5

10Blocked1

22Inside Box6

9Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

593Total Passes407

535Accurate Passes347

90%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls3

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3