Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
10/7/2020Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 17MAPFRE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Columbus Crew47%
×Draw25%
CF Montreal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Columbus Crew
1.62
CF Montreal
1.22

Columbus Crew creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Columbus Crew
1.48
CF Montreal
1.39

allows per match

Columbus Crew
1.05
CF Montreal
1.76

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.25scores more
CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw
71%
Columbus Crew or CF Montreal
75%
Draw or CF Montreal
53%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+
24%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals
80%
Columbus Crew 2+ goals
48%
Columbus Crew 3+ goals
22%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
70%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
34%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)
62%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.05 · 15 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.48 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.62

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Columbus Crew defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Columbus Crew scores more
47%
level
25%
CF Montreal scores more
29%

Columbus Crew at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Columbus Crew 1–2 CF Montreal

CF Montreal beat Columbus Crew 2-1 in Major League Soccer on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at MAPFRE Stadium in Columbus, Ohio.