Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Columbus Crew II vs Philadelphia Union II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Columbus Crew II
Columbus Crew II
Preview
22:00
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
7/18/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageHistoric Crew Stadium
Big match
46%
Columbus Crew II
model favours
46%21%32%

Columbus Crew II are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Columbus Crew II46%
×Draw21%
Philadelphia Union II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Columbus Crew II
2.02
Philadelphia Union II
1.67

Columbus Crew II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Columbus Crew II
2.42
Philadelphia Union II
1.95

allows per match

Columbus Crew II
1.40
Philadelphia Union II
1.61

finishing

Columbus Crew II+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew II ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Columbus Crew II or draw
68%
Columbus Crew II or Philadelphia Union II
79%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
54%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew II wins by 2+
26%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Columbus Crew II 1+ goals
87%
Columbus Crew II 2+ goals
60%
Columbus Crew II 3+ goals
33%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
81%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
50%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew II (draw refunded)
59%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew II attack 2.42 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.02

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + Columbus Crew II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Columbus Crew II scores more
46%
level
21%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
32%

Columbus Crew II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Columbus Crew II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Columbus Crew II have scored in 13 games running
  • Both teams score in 81% of Columbus Crew II’s matches
  • 75% of Columbus Crew II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Philadelphia Union II have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
DDWWW
II
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Columbus Crew II host Philadelphia Union II

July 18, 2026: Columbus Crew II take on Philadelphia Union II in MLS Next Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Columbus Crew II host Philadelphia Union II at Historic Crew Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.