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Columbus Crew II vs Inter Miami II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Columbus Crew II
Columbus Crew II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Inter Miami II
Inter Miami II
4/30/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 7Historic Crew Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Columbus Crew II68%
×Draw17%
Inter Miami II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Columbus Crew II
2.57
Inter Miami II
1.14

Columbus Crew II creates 125% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 50 away

creates per match

Columbus Crew II
2.42
Inter Miami II
0.88

allows per match

Columbus Crew II
1.40
Inter Miami II
2.72

finishing

Columbus Crew II+0.00on par
Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew II ↓

Inter Miami II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Columbus Crew II or draw
85%
Columbus Crew II or Inter Miami II
83%
Draw or Inter Miami II
32%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew II wins by 2+
46%
Inter Miami II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Columbus Crew II 1+ goals
92%
Columbus Crew II 2+ goals
72%
Columbus Crew II 3+ goals
47%
Inter Miami II 1+ goals
68%
Inter Miami II 2+ goals
32%
Inter Miami II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew II (draw refunded)
82%
Inter Miami II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.72 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew II attack 2.42 + Inter Miami II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.57

Inter Miami II attack 0.88 + Columbus Crew II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Columbus Crew II scores more
68%
level
17%
Inter Miami II scores more
15%

Columbus Crew II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Columbus Crew II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Columbus Crew II vs Inter Miami II

Columbus Crew II beat Inter Miami II 3-2 in MLS Next Pro on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Historic Crew Stadium in Columbus, Ohio.