Columbus Crew II 1–1 Chicago Fire II

Columbus Crew II

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chicago Fire II

6/22/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 19Historic Crew Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Columbus Crew II54%

×Draw20%

Chicago Fire II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus Crew IIExpected goals in this matchChicago Fire II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.62

Columbus Crew II

2.35

Chicago Fire II

1.62

Columbus Crew II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

2.42

creates per match

1.84

1.40

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Columbus Crew II

2.42

Chicago Fire II

1.84

allows per match

Columbus Crew II

1.40

Chicago Fire II

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Columbus Crew II+0.00on par

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew II ↓

Chicago Fire II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Columbus Crew II or draw

74%

Columbus Crew II or Chicago Fire II

80%

Draw or Chicago Fire II

46%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew II wins by 2+

33%

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Columbus Crew II 1+ goals

90%

Columbus Crew II 2+ goals

68%

Columbus Crew II 3+ goals

41%

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals

80%

Chicago Fire II 2+ goals

48%

Chicago Fire II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew II (draw refunded)

67%

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew II attack 2.42 + Chicago Fire II defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.35

Chicago Fire II attack 1.84 + Columbus Crew II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Columbus Crew II scores more

54%

level

20%

Chicago Fire II scores more

26%

Columbus Crew II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Columbus Crew II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff