Tokyo Verdy vs Gainare Tottori — J2 League 2013
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Tokyo Verdy75%
Gainare Tottori5%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tokyo Verdy creates 500% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No78
- Yes22
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tokyo Verdy ↓
Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches
Gainare Tottori away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tokyo Verdy attack 1.60 + Gainare Tottori defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80
Gainare Tottori attack 0.00 + Tokyo Verdy defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.30
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 75%?"
Tokyo Verdy at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 75% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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FC RyukyuGainare Tottori
Kitakyushu
Parceiro NaganoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tokyo Verdy host Gainare Tottori on Sunday, 14 April 2013 at 07:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2013/2014 season.
Tokyo Verdy 3 – 0 Gainare Tottori
Tokyo Verdy beat Gainare Tottori 3-0 in J2 League on April 14, 2013.
Goals: K. Iio (22'), N. Takahara (31'), N. Maeda (90+3').
The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium.