Colorado Springs 4–2 Tulsa Roughnecks

Colorado Springs

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Tulsa Roughnecks

7/22/2018

USL Championship · Round 33Weidner Field (Colorado Springs)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Colorado Springs50%

×Draw24%

Tulsa Roughnecks26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado SpringsExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.14

Colorado Springs

1.67

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.14

Colorado Springs creates 46% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 130 away

1.52

creates per match

1.19

1.09

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Colorado Springs

1.52

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Colorado Springs

1.09

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw

74%

Colorado Springs or Tulsa Roughnecks

76%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

50%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+

26%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals

81%

Colorado Springs 2+ goals

50%

Colorado Springs 3+ goals

23%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

68%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

32%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)

66%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Colorado Springs scores more

50%

level

24%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

26%

Colorado Springs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff