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Colorado Springs vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
Preview
00:00
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
10/25/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageWeidner Field
Big match
50%
Colorado Springs
model favours
50%24%26%

Colorado Springs score first in only 22% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Colorado Springs50%
×Draw24%
FC Tulsa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.67
FC Tulsa
1.14

Colorado Springs creates 46% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 130 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.52
FC Tulsa
1.19

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.09
FC Tulsa
1.81

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
74%
Colorado Springs or FC Tulsa
76%
Draw or FC Tulsa
50%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
26%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
81%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
50%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
23%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
68%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
32%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
66%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
50%
level
24%
FC Tulsa scores more
26%

Colorado Springs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Tulsa score first in only 25% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Springs
WWLWL
Tulsa
LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Colorado Springs host FC Tulsa

October 25, 2026: Colorado Springs take on FC Tulsa in USL Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Colorado Springs host FC Tulsa at Weidner Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.