Colorado Springs vs Charleston Battery

Colorado Springs

Preview

01:00

Charleston Battery

7/26/2026

USL Championship · Group StageWeidner Field

46%

Colorado Springs

model favours

46%25%29%

Colorado Springs have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Colorado Springs46%

×Draw25%

Charleston Battery29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado SpringsExpected goals in this matchCharleston Battery

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.18

Colorado Springs

1.57

Charleston Battery

1.18

Colorado Springs creates 33% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 131 away

1.52

creates per match

1.27

1.09

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Colorado Springs

1.52

Charleston Battery

1.27

allows per match

Colorado Springs

1.09

Charleston Battery

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

Charleston Battery →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw

71%

Colorado Springs or Charleston Battery

75%

Draw or Charleston Battery

54%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+

24%

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals

79%

Colorado Springs 2+ goals

46%

Colorado Springs 3+ goals

21%

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

69%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

33%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)

62%

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 132 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.63 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + Charleston Battery defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Charleston Battery attack 1.27 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colorado Springs scores more

46%

level

25%

Charleston Battery scores more

29%

Colorado Springs at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Colorado Springs score first in only 25% of matches
33% of Charleston Battery’s goals come after the 75th minute
Their last 4 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Springs

WWWLW

Battery

DDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff