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Colorado Rapids II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Colorado Rapids II
Colorado Rapids II
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
8/6/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 28Metropolitan State University of Denver Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Colorado Rapids II49%
×Draw22%
Vancouver Whitecaps II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Rapids II
2.01
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.53

Colorado Rapids II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 48 away

creates per match

Colorado Rapids II
1.75
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.44

allows per match

Colorado Rapids II
1.62
Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.27

finishing

Colorado Rapids II+0.00on par
Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids II ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids II or draw
70%
Colorado Rapids II or Vancouver Whitecaps II
78%
Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps II
51%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids II wins by 2+
28%
Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids II 1+ goals
87%
Colorado Rapids II 2+ goals
59%
Colorado Rapids II 3+ goals
32%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
78%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
45%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids II (draw refunded)
62%
Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.62 · 53 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids II attack 1.75 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.01

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + Colorado Rapids II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colorado Rapids II scores more
49%
level
22%
Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
30%

Colorado Rapids II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colorado Rapids II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colorado Rapids II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II

Colorado Rapids II beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 6-2 in MLS Next Pro on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Metropolitan State University of Denver Stadium in Denver.